Issue 33 Aug 7 2025 5 min read

The active pool expanded this week.

Demand is still there - just not for everything.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
3 / 10

Balanced - slight buyer edge.

New listings 0 Supply is building.
Sales 0 Deals are happening selectively.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Enough moved to keep things active.
Market pressure Buyer edge Buyers have leverage - pricing needs to be sharp to move.
Buyer take

Expect choice, and do not be afraid to negotiate.

Seller take

Pricing and presentation need to do the heavy lifting.

Market read

The week, in plain English

Nothing about this week felt wild, but it did feel revealing. 10 new listings arrived while 5 sales closed. Inventory is building faster than sales. 3 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Taken together, this was a market that stayed active, but only rewarded listings that were positioned correctly. A visible price cut showed up on the board this week.

What I’m watching next

Whether the best new listings get picked off early.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

One week can wobble - the charts are better at showing direction. That is where the broader balance becomes easier to see. That is usually where the next meaningful signal shows up first.

Inventory

121 current

High 136 · Low 39.0

Inventory

121 homes on market

Supply is running below last year, which keeps fresh, well-priced listings more competitive.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 39 · Avg 121

Current snapshot: Current 121 · Vs last year ↓ 10% · 89% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

4.38 / week

High 5.25 · Low 1.00

Sales

4.375 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 4.375 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5.25

Current snapshot: Current 4.375 · Vs last year ↑ 3% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because not every active week is an easy one. That sets up the rest of the week.

The first real signal this week came from supply. That is where buyers decide whether to act or wait.

The easiest place to start this week is with new inventory.

404-800 Riverside Way - $1,039,900

Worth watching early - detached launches often tell you fastest whether buyers are prepared to act or just compare.

Detached launches like this tend to tell you quickly whether buyers are ready to move - or still comparing.

Also new this week

See all listings →

New sales

New sales

Some sales happened, but patience was still part of the process.

One listing cleared quickly while another took the long road. Sales are happening, but not fast enough to materially thin inventory. That is more disciplined demand than aggressive demand. Sellers still need to remove friction early. 3 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Median sold price was $1,125,000. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see. That is often what a more comparison-driven market looks like. Price discipline is likely to matter more than marketing spin. A visible price cut showed up on the board this week. 1 visible price cut landed this week. Median cut: $230,000. Largest cut: $230,000.

Financing backdrop

Financing backdrop

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2025-08-08, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.75%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved sideways versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was quiet into the week, so it was not adding much inflation pressure.

Insight

Where sellers are trimming

If the market pushed back anywhere, it was here. That is where sellers start reacting to the market they have, not the one they wanted. That makes this section useful well beyond the raw count.

A visible price cut showed up on the board this week.

If there was softness this week, it showed up here. This is one of the better places to see whether sellers are still pushing - or starting to listen.

  • 1 visible price cut this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 1.0% of active listings
  • Median reduction: $230,000
  • Largest cut: $230,000

Pressure on the board

  • 31 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 31.3% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 3 (3 expired, 0 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.5 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.3 cuts/week

This week’s cuts to watch

That reflects buyers pushing back on listings that feel stretched. Price discipline should matter more than extra exposure alone.

Insight

What could matter next

Whether extra supply leads to action or just more comparison.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

Closing insight

Closing insight

More supply is giving buyers control. This is leaning buyer.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Aug 7 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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