Issue 26 Dec 11 2025 5 min read

Sales outpaced new listings this week.

The right listings are still separating first.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
5 / 10

Balanced - slight buyer edge.

New listings 0 Supply stayed light.
Sales 0 Deals are happening selectively.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Enough moved to keep things active.
Market pressure Balanced - buyer lean No clear control - buyers have a slight edge.
Buyer take

Expect choice, but be ready to act on clean listings.

Seller take

Pricing and presentation are still deciding outcomes.

Market read

The week, in plain English

The market moved, but it did not get loose. 2 new listings arrived while 4 sales closed. Sell-through has improved relative to incoming supply. 0 sold over ask while 4 sold under ask. Taken together, that made this feel like a market that was still moving, but in a more selective and disciplined way than the headline numbers alone might suggest. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see.

What I’m watching next

Whether the best new listings get picked off early.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

The weekly count matters, but the trend matters more. That is the better way to tell whether supply and demand are actually changing. The point is not just the latest number - it is what kind of market that number belongs to.

Inventory

117 current

High 136 · Low 39.0

Inventory

117 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 39 · Avg 117

Current snapshot: Current 117 · Vs last year ↑ 26% · 86% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

4.00 / week

High 5.38 · Low 1.00

Sales

4 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 4 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5.375

Current snapshot: Current 4 · Vs last year ↑ 3% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

If you want to understand the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That is where market tone usually shows up early. That is what sets up the read on sales, reductions, and momentum.

The easiest place to start this week is with new inventory.

20 Alpine Trails Crescent - $2,395,000

Worth watching early - detached launches often tell you fastest whether buyers are prepared to act or just compare.

Also new this week

New sales

New sales

Closed sales still suggested buyers had room to negotiate.

Sales are happening, but not fast enough to materially thin inventory. That is more disciplined demand than aggressive demand. Sellers still need to remove friction early. 0 sold over ask while 4 sold under ask. Median sold price was $582,500. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see. That is often what a more comparison-driven market looks like. The market should keep rewarding realism over ambition.

Price cuts

Price cuts

If the market pushed back anywhere, it was here. That is where sellers start reacting to the market they have, not the one they wanted. That makes this section useful well beyond the raw count.

No fresh price cuts landed this week, but the reduction layer is still active on the board.

  • 0 visible price cuts this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 0.0% of active listings

Pressure on the board

  • 31 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 31.3% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 6 (4 expired, 2 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.5 cuts/week

Largest active cuts to watch

  • Largest cut0 visible price cuts this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 0.0% of active listings

Pressure on the board

  • 31 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 31.3% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 6 (4 expired, 2 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.5 cuts/week

Active cuts to watch

Financing backdrop

Financing backdrop

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2025-12-12, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.25%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved higher versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was quiet into the week, so it was not adding much inflation pressure.

Insight

What could matter next

Whether extra supply leads to action or just more comparison.

If absorption stays this firm, the better-positioned listings may not wait around for second looks. If it slips, that firmer tone probably fades quickly once more supply shows up.

Closing insight

Closing insight

For now, the better listings still look capable of moving before the rest of the board catches up.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Dec 11 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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