Issue 25 Nov 19 2025 5 min read

Selection widened and buyers had more to sort through.

Extra choice kept the week from feeling urgent.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
3 / 10

Balanced - slight buyer edge.

New listings 0 New supply showed up, but not enough to flood the board.
Sales 0 Demand is selective - deals are happening, but not across the board.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Pace remains slow - inventory is not being cleared quickly.
Market pressure Buyer edge Buyers have leverage - pricing needs to be sharp to move.
Buyer take

Expect choice, and do not be afraid to negotiate.

Seller take

Pricing and presentation need to do the heavy lifting.

Market read

The week, in plain English

The market stayed active, but it did not feel generous. 6 new listings arrived while 3 sales closed. The board is getting deeper faster than it is getting cleared. 1 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Taken together, that made this feel like a market that was still moving, but in a more selective and disciplined way than the headline numbers alone might suggest. The board is showing more visible seller adjustments.

What I’m watching next

Whether the best new listings get picked off early.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

The numbers make more sense once you zoom out. That is where the week either confirms the trend or starts to challenge it. The point is not just the latest number - it is what kind of market that number belongs to.

Inventory

116 current

High 136 · Low 39.0

Inventory

116 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 39 · Avg 116

Current snapshot: Current 116 · Vs last year ↑ 6% · 85% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

5.25 / week

High 5.38 · Low 1.00

Sales

5.25 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 5.25 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5.375

Current snapshot: Current 5.25 · Vs last year ↑ 14% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

The first signal this week came from supply. That is often the first place balance starts to shift. That is what the market then has to respond to.

I usually start with new inventory because it sets the pace for everything that follows.

892 9th Avenue - $1,150,000

Worth watching early - detached launches often tell you fastest whether buyers are prepared to act or just compare.

Also new this week

New sales

New sales

Closed sales still suggested buyers had room to negotiate.

One listing cleared quickly while another took the long road. There is participation here, but it is still narrow. That usually means comparison shopping is still shaping decisions. Homes that miss the mark may sit longer than expected. 1 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Median sold price was $950,000. The board is showing more visible seller adjustments. That suggests sellers are being forced closer to the market faster. Price discipline is likely to matter more than marketing spin.

Price cuts

Price cuts

The softest part of the week showed up in pricing behaviour. That is where discipline gets tested fastest. That gives a better read on seller pressure than inventory alone.

No fresh price cuts landed this week, but the reduction layer is still active on the board.

  • 0 visible price cuts this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 0.0% of active listings

Pressure on the board

  • 31 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 31.3% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 2 (2 expired, 0 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.8 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.7 cuts/week

Largest active cuts to watch

  • Largest cut0 visible price cuts this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 0.0% of active listings

Pressure on the board

  • 31 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 31.3% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 2 (2 expired, 0 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.8 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.7 cuts/week

Active cuts to watch

Insight

What matters next

Whether this new inventory gets absorbed cleanly.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

Closing insight

Closing insight

For now, this still looks like a market where clarity wins faster than optimism.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Nov 19 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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